Updated: January 2026
Peak season doesn't wait for anyone to catch up. When order volumes surge 30% to 60% above normal and every carrier network tightens, the businesses that planned ahead deliver smoothly while everyone else scrambles for capacity and apologizes for delays.
The difference between stress and success comes down to preparation—knowing what worked last year, forecasting what's coming, and building flexibility into your operations before the rush hits. This guide walks through the key steps for analyzing past performance, securing carrier capacity, optimizing routes, and keeping customers informed when stakes are highest.
To help you navigate the busiest time of the year, we’ve put together our Peak Season Survival Guide 2025. This guide breaks down key challenges, timelines, and practical strategies to help businesses plan ahead, avoid delays, and keep operations running smoothly during peak season. You can access the full guide here.
Why peak season preparation matters for last-mile delivery
Planning last-mile delivery for peak season starts with analyzing previous year's data, implementing route optimization, diversifying carrier partnerships, and positioning inventory closer to customers. Real-time tracking, clear customer communication, and efficient warehouse operations make the difference between smooth deliveries and constant firefighting. Without this groundwork in place, businesses often face delays, overwhelmed carriers, and frustrated customers right when stakes are highest.
In Canadian retail, peak season typically runs from late October through December, covering Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and holiday shopping. Order volumes during this window can jump 30% to 60% above normal levels, which means months of demand get compressed into just a few weeks. For shippers, this concentration leaves little room for error—every missed delivery or delayed package chips away at customer trust.
The challenge goes beyond simply moving more packages. Carrier networks get stretched thin, delivery windows tighten, and customer expectations climb all at once. Businesses that wait until November to address these pressures usually end up scrambling for capacity, paying premium rates, and apologizing for delays. On the other hand, those who plan ahead can turn peak season into a competitive advantage rather than a crisis.
How to analyze last year's delivery performance
Before looking forward, it helps to look back. Your historical delivery data contains patterns, wins, and failures that directly shape this year's approach. Think of last year's peak season as a dress rehearsal—one that reveals exactly where your logistics network held up and where it buckled under pressure.
On-time delivery rates
Your on-time delivery percentage shows how well your network performed when volumes spiked. Compare your peak season rates against your regular performance, and pay attention to any significant drops. Even improving by a few percentage points can mean hundreds of happier customers during high-volume weeks.
Failed delivery attempts
Failed deliveries are expensive—costing $17.78 per failed package to resolve. The usual culprits include incorrect addresses, customers not being home, and access problems at delivery locations. By tracking where and why failures happened, you can put targeted fixes in place, whether that's address validation at checkout or more flexible delivery windows.
Customer complaints and feedback
Support tickets and reviews from previous peak seasons often surface issues that raw data misses. Look for recurring themes: Were customers frustrated by lack of tracking updates? Missed time windows? Damaged packages? These qualitative insights point toward specific improvements that numbers alone won't reveal.
Carrier performance comparisons
If you work with multiple delivery partners, compare how each one performed when volumes increased. Some carriers maintain quality under pressure while others struggle with delays and poor communication. This comparison helps you allocate volume more strategically and decide which partnerships deserve more investment.
How to forecast demand for peak season shipping
Accurate demand forecasting lets you prepare inventory, staffing, and carrier capacity before the rush hits. Forecasting—predicting future order volumes based on historical patterns and market signals—transforms reactive scrambling into proactive planning.
Review historical sales and delivery data
Start by examining order volumes from previous peak seasons and look for patterns in daily and weekly fluctuations. Note which days saw the highest volumes and how quickly orders needed to ship. These baselines help you anticipate staffing and carrier capacity requirements with more precision.
Identify regional delivery trends
Delivery demand varies across Canadian regions, and these patterns often shift from year to year. Urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver may see different peak timing than rural areas or smaller cities. Understanding geographic distribution helps you position inventory and allocate carrier resources where they'll have the greatest impact.
Align forecasts with promotions and marketing campaigns
Your marketing calendar directly influences delivery volume and timing. A flash sale or promotional email can spike orders within hours, creating sudden pressure on fulfillment and delivery. Coordinating with your marketing team to build these planned surges into your logistics forecasts prevents last-minute scrambles.
How to maximize delivery capacity before peak season
Securing enough carrier and fleet capacity ranks among the most critical planning steps, yet many businesses underestimate how early this work needs to begin. Carriers commit their resources months in advance, so waiting too long often means paying premium rates or facing shortages when you need capacity most.
Audit your current carrier capabilities
Before peak season approaches, assess whether your existing delivery partners can handle your projected volume increases. This audit goes beyond checking if they serve your delivery zones—you'll want to understand their limits and track record.
Secure backup delivery partners
Relying on a single carrier during peak season creates real risk. Even the most reliable partners can become overwhelmed when every shipper's volumes spike at once. Establishing relationships with secondary carriers—even if you only use them for overflow—gives you flexibility when your primary network reaches capacity.
Tip: Many carriers add peak season surcharges that aren't always communicated clearly upfront. Ask specifically about holiday pricing, weekend delivery fees, and volume-based rate changes before finalizing capacity agreements.
How to optimize routes and delivery windows
Route optimization uses technology to calculate the most efficient delivery sequences, and this becomes especially valuable when volumes increase and time windows tighten. During peak season, even small efficiency gains multiply across thousands of deliveries.
Advanced routing considers multiple variables at once: traffic patterns, delivery time windows, vehicle capacity, and driver schedules. What might take hours to plan manually can be calculated in minutes with the right tools, improving operational efficiency by 20-30%. The result is fewer miles driven, more deliveries completed per route, and better adherence to promised times.
Delivery windows also deserve attention during peak planning. Offering customers narrower, more specific time slots improves their experience and reduces failed delivery attempts. However, tighter windows require more precise routing and real-time visibility into driver locations. Platforms like Koorier One give shippers a control centre to schedule, manage, and track deliveries while providing recipients with real-time updates and the ability to manage their delivery experience.
How to strengthen warehouse operations for faster dispatch
Your warehouse is the starting point for every delivery, and bottlenecks here ripple through your entire logistics chain. Peak season exposes inefficiencies in picking, packing, and handoff processes that might go unnoticed during normal volumes.
Optimizing warehouse layout for your highest-velocity items reduces picking time and speeds order processing. Implementing barcode scanning at each stage—from pick to pack to carrier handoff—improves accuracy and creates visibility into where orders sit in the fulfillment process. These improvements compound when you're processing hundreds or thousands of additional orders daily.
The handoff between warehouse and carrier is another critical moment. Clear staging areas organized by carrier and route help drivers load quickly and accurately. Some operations designate specific dock doors or pickup zones for each delivery partner, which minimizes confusion and wait times during the busiest periods.
How to use real-time tracking and visibility
Real-time visibility into delivery status benefits both your operations team and your customers. For operations, tracking enables proactive problem-solving—you can spot delays, reroute drivers, and communicate issues before customers start calling. For customers, accurate tracking reduces anxiety and support inquiries while building confidence in your brand.
Effective tracking goes beyond showing a package's location on a map. The most useful systems provide:
- Accurate ETAs: Delivery time predictions that update based on actual conditions
- Proactive notifications: Automatic alerts when status changes or delays occur
- Exception flagging: Early warning when deliveries are at risk of missing their windows
- Proof of delivery: Confirmation with timestamps, photos, or signatures
How to communicate with customers during peak season
Customer communication during peak season requires balancing transparency with reassurance. Shoppers understand that delivery networks get busy during holidays—what frustrates them is uncertainty and silence when things don't go as planned.
Setting clear expectations starts before the purchase. Displaying realistic delivery estimates at checkout, communicating order cutoff dates for holiday arrival, and being specific about what "delivery by" actually means all help manage expectations. Vague ranges like "4-6 business days" create anxiety, while specific dates build confidence.
Once an order ships, proactive updates reduce support inquiries and improve the delivery experience. Automated notifications at key milestones—shipped, out for delivery, delivered—keep customers informed without requiring them to check tracking repeatedly, though 91% of consumers actively track their packages anyway. When delays occur, early communication with honest explanations maintains trust far better than silence followed by a missed delivery.
How to prepare contingency plans for delivery disruptions
Even well-prepared operations encounter unexpected challenges during peak season. Weather events, carrier capacity issues, and sudden demand spikes can all disrupt carefully laid plans, with 10-12% of packages expected to face delays during the 2025 holiday season. Building contingency options into your strategy provides flexibility when circumstances change.
Contingency planning involves identifying your most likely disruption scenarios and preparing responses in advance. If your primary carrier becomes overwhelmed, which backup partner can absorb overflow? If a weather event delays shipments to certain regions, how will you communicate with affected customers? Having these answers ready means faster response when problems arise.
Buffer time built into delivery promises provides another layer of protection. While customers appreciate fast shipping, promising delivery dates you can consistently meet matters more than aggressive timelines you frequently miss. A delivery that arrives a day early delights customers, while one that arrives a day late damages trust.
Ready to strengthen your peak season delivery strategy? Request a shipping quote from Koorier.
Author & Authority
By Steve Kolbuc
Head of Business Development with over 30 years of experience in Canadian last-mile delivery optimization.
About Koorier
Koorier has helped Canadian merchants design and operate regional delivery networks since 2021.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to start planning for peak season delivery?
Most logistics professionals recommend beginning peak season planning three to four months in advance. For holiday shipping, this means starting serious preparation in August or September. Early planning allows time to analyze data, negotiate carrier agreements, and implement any technology or process changes before volumes increase.
How can small businesses compete with large retailers during peak season?
Smaller operations often have advantages in flexibility and customer relationships that larger competitors lack. Focusing on clear communication, realistic delivery promises, and responsive customer service can differentiate your brand. Partnering with technology-driven delivery networks that offer enterprise-level visibility and control—without requiring enterprise-level volume—helps level the playing field.
What are the most common causes of peak season delivery failures?
Address errors, customers not being home, and access issues account for the majority of failed delivery attempts. Implementing address validation at checkout, offering delivery notifications with accurate ETAs, and providing flexible delivery options like safe drop locations or alternative delivery dates can significantly reduce failure rates.
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