Updated February 2026
The 2025 Canadian holiday season brings a fundamental shift in how consumers approach their spending—and what they expect from the retailers and logistics providers serving them. With budgets holding steady but deal-hunting intensifying, the pressure falls squarely on fulfillment operations to deliver value, speed, and transparency simultaneously.
This guide breaks down the consumer trends shaping holiday retail, the supply chain challenges unique to the Canadian market, and the practical strategies retailers and 3PLs can use to turn peak season complexity into competitive advantage.
Canadian holiday retail spending outlook
Canadian holiday retail in 2025 centers on what analysts call "conscious consumerism." Shoppers are holding budgets steady around $975 while actively hunting for value, deals, and loyalty rewards amid ongoing inflationary pressure, with 85% waiting for sales before making purchases. This value-driven mindset goes beyond simply finding the lowest price—Canadians are weighing quality, durability, and brand alignment alongside cost.
Consumer confidence sits in cautiously optimistic territory. Many shoppers are prioritizing essentials and seeking promotions rather than splurging on discretionary items. For retailers and third-party logistics providers (3PLs), this pattern suggests delivery volumes will spread more evenly across the season rather than spiking in a single peak week.
The fulfillment implication is straightforward: logistics networks face sustained demand over a longer period, which calls for flexible capacity planning rather than a single-surge strategy.
When Canadians start their holiday shopping
The "slow holiday" has taken hold in Canada. More than half of Canadian shoppers begin their holiday purchasing before November, spreading spending across several months to avoid price hikes and secure better deals. This shift changes how retailers and 3PLs approach inventory positioning and delivery capacity.
Early shopping trends affecting inventory planning
Pre-October shopping is becoming common, driven by consumers who want to lock in prices before potential tariff-related increases or stock shortages. For fulfillment operations, this means inventory staging and warehouse throughput planning now starts in late summer rather than early fall.
Retailers working with 3PLs benefit from earlier coordination on stock levels and distribution center readiness. Waiting until November to ramp up operations often results in capacity constraints and missed delivery windows.
Key peak shopping periods for delivery preparation
While early shopping spreads volume across the season, certain windows still create distinct fulfillment demands:
The final pre-Christmas push, in particular, rewards carriers with high first-attempt delivery rates and clear proof-of-delivery capabilities.
How consumer spending priorities are changing
Canadian shoppers in 2025 aren't just looking for the lowest price—they're seeking value. And value increasingly means quality and durability alongside competitive pricing. This nuanced definition affects everything from product selection to shipping expectations.
Value-conscious shopping and its fulfillment impact
When most Canadians report actively searching for the best deals, price sensitivity directly influences order sizes and shipping choices. Consumers often consolidate purchases with fewer retailers to maximize loyalty points and qualify for free shipping thresholds.
For 3PLs, this consolidation trend can mean larger individual orders but potentially fewer total shipments per customer. Returns also become a consideration, since value-conscious shoppers may be more likely to return items that don't meet quality expectations.
Regional spending patterns across Canada
Spending and delivery expectations vary meaningfully across provinces. Urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver see higher e-commerce penetration and greater demand for same-day or next-day delivery options. Rural and remote areas, meanwhile, often have longer delivery time expectations but still require reliable tracking and communication.
Growing preference for Canadian products
A notable "buy Canadian" sentiment is influencing holiday purchasing decisions. Only 12% of Canadians plan to shop in the US compared to the previous year, creating opportunities for Canadian retailers and placing additional emphasis on domestic fulfillment networks.
For 3PLs, supporting this trend means ensuring robust coast-to-coast delivery capabilities. Some retailers are also exploring near-shoring strategies—bringing inventory closer to Canadian consumers rather than relying on cross-border shipments.
Omnichannel shopping trends shaping holiday fulfillment
Omnichannel retail refers to the seamless integration of online and in-store shopping experiences. Most Canadian holiday shoppers now use multiple channels during their purchasing journey, researching online before buying in-store or vice versa. This behavior has become the expectation rather than the exception.
Online shopping and last-mile delivery demand
E-commerce continues to grow, with online holiday sales expected to outpace in-store growth as e-commerce spending grew seven percent year-over-year during the holiday period. This places sustained pressure on last-mile delivery networks, particularly in dense urban areas where parcel volumes concentrate.
The challenge isn't just capacity—it's visibility. Consumers expect real-time tracking updates and accurate estimated arrival times throughout the delivery journey.
BOPIS and curbside pickup expectations
Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store (BOPIS) has evolved from a pandemic necessity to a permanent consumer preference. This fulfillment method reduces last-mile delivery costs while meeting consumer demands for convenience and immediacy.
For retailers, BOPIS requires tight inventory synchronization between online systems and physical store locations. For 3PLs supporting retail clients, understanding how BOPIS fits into the broader fulfillment strategy helps optimize which orders flow through delivery networks versus store pickup.
Why in-store shopping still matters
Despite digital growth, many Canadian consumers still plan to browse in-store during the holiday season. The tactile, experiential nature of holiday shopping—seeing decorations, touching products, experiencing the atmosphere—remains valuable.
- Discovery and experience: Consumers value seeing and touching products before purchasing
- Immediate gratification: No shipping wait times for urgent or last-minute purchases
- Complementary channel: In-store visits often drive online research and future purchases
How generational differences influence delivery expectations
Different age groups approach holiday shopping and delivery with distinct preferences. Understanding generational nuances helps retailers and 3PLs tailor fulfillment strategies and communication approaches.
Gen Z and Millennial delivery preferences
Younger consumers prioritize speed, flexibility, and real-time visibility. They expect app-based notifications, the ability to redirect packages, and sustainable delivery options. Social commerce platforms like TikTok Shop increasingly influence their purchasing decisions, often resulting in more frequent, smaller orders.
For 3PLs, serving this demographic well means offering robust tracking capabilities and flexible delivery windows that accommodate unpredictable schedules.
Gen X and Boomer fulfillment needs
Older generations tend to prioritize reliability over speed. They often prefer email communication, value consistent delivery experiences, and demonstrate higher brand loyalty. Many in this demographic also appreciate in-store options and may be less comfortable with app-based delivery management.
Holiday supply chain challenges facing retailers and 3PLs
The 2025 holiday season presents several logistics obstacles unique to the Canadian market. Recognizing challenges early allows for proactive planning rather than reactive scrambling.
Tariff uncertainty and cross-border disruptions
Trade policy changes continue to create uncertainty for cross-border shipments between Canada and the US. Tariffs can affect product availability, landed costs, and delivery timelines—all of which ripple through to consumer expectations and fulfillment operations.
Retailers with US-sourced inventory may face pressure to find Canadian alternatives or adjust pricing strategies accordingly.
Winter weather delivery risks in Canada
Canadian winters create delivery challenges that don't exist in many other markets. Road closures, vehicle limitations in heavy snow, and unpredictable delays can all affect service levels during the critical December period.
Proactive communication becomes essential when weather disrupts delivery schedules. Consumers generally understand weather delays—what frustrates them is lack of information.
Peak season capacity constraints
Holiday volume spikes strain every part of the logistics network:
- Carrier availability: Demand often exceeds supply during peak weeks
- Warehouse throughput: Order processing bottlenecks can delay shipments
- Driver shortages: Seasonal hiring challenges affect last-mile capacity
Planning for capacity constraints means securing carrier commitments early and building flexibility into fulfillment workflows.
How AI is improving holiday retail logistics
Artificial intelligence (AI) in logistics refers to software tools that automate decisions, analyze patterns, and predict outcomes based on data. AI-powered logistics tools aren't futuristic concepts—they're practical technologies already improving holiday fulfillment operations.
AI-powered demand forecasting
AI analyzes historical sales data, market signals, and external factors to predict holiday order volumes with greater accuracy than traditional methods. Better forecasting leads to smarter inventory positioning and more appropriate staffing levels.
Automated route optimization for last-mile delivery
Route optimization algorithms calculate efficient delivery sequences in real-time, accounting for traffic patterns, weather conditions, and delivery windows. This technology helps drivers complete more stops per shift while meeting promised delivery times.
Real-time tracking and customer communication
AI enables proactive delivery updates and exception management—automatically notifying customers when packages are delayed or when delivery attempts fail. This reduces "where is my order" inquiries, which typically surge during holiday peaks.
What is Q5 and why post-holiday fulfillment matters
Q5 refers to the period from December 26 through mid-January. This window is often overlooked in holiday planning but proves critical for protecting margins and customer relationships.
Managing holiday returns and reverse logistics
Reverse logistics—the process of handling returned merchandise—becomes a major operational focus after the holidays. Efficient returns processing protects margins and maintains customer satisfaction during a period when many consumers are evaluating whether to shop with a retailer again.
Gift card redemption and extended fulfillment
Gift card purchases create a secondary fulfillment wave in January as recipients redeem their cards. This extended demand requires sustained capacity beyond the traditional holiday cutoff dates.
How 3PLs can prepare for Canadian holiday peak season
Third-party logistics providers play a critical role in holiday success. Preparation often determines whether peak season runs smoothly or becomes a scramble.
Scaling last-mile delivery capacity
Expanding driver networks, extending operating hours, and adding temporary capacity all require advance planning. Technology platforms that enable flexible scaling—connecting to multiple carrier networks through a single integration—can provide valuable agility during demand spikes.
Strengthening retailer and 3PL coordination
Clear communication between retailers and logistics partners prevents many peak-season problems. This includes sharing demand forecasts, establishing service level agreements (SLAs), and integrating systems for real-time visibility.
Setting clear delivery expectations with consignees
The consignee—the person receiving the delivery—benefits from proactive communication throughout the delivery journey:
- Delivery windows: Specific timeframes rather than just dates
- Real-time updates: Push notifications at key milestones
- Self-service options: Ability to reschedule or redirect deliveries
Strategies for retailers to optimize holiday delivery performance
Retailers can take several concrete steps to improve delivery outcomes during the holiday season.
1. Partner with technology-driven 3PLs
Working with logistics providers that offer real-time visibility, API integrations, and configurable workflows provides greater control over the delivery experience. Capabilities like these become especially valuable during high-volume periods when exceptions and delays are more common.
Request a shipping quote or optimize your shipping with Koorier.
2. Offer flexible delivery and pickup options
Providing multiple fulfillment choices—home delivery, BOPIS, locker pickup—meets diverse consumer preferences and can reduce pressure on any single fulfillment channel.
3. Communicate proactively throughout the delivery journey
Every delivery touchpoint reflects the retailer's brand. Real-time updates, accurate ETAs, and prompt notification of any issues build trust and reduce customer anxiety during the waiting period between purchase and delivery.
4. Prepare your returns process before peak season
Establishing clear return policies, providing pre-printed labels, and coordinating with reverse logistics partners before the rush begins prevents January from becoming a margin-eroding scramble.
How to build a flexible holiday fulfillment operation
The retailers and 3PLs that succeed during holiday 2025 will be those that build adaptability into their operations. Rigid systems struggle when demand patterns shift or unexpected challenges arise.
Key elements of flexible fulfillment include:
- Visibility: Real-time tracking across the entire delivery journey
- Scalability: Capacity that expands and contracts with demand
- Communication: Proactive updates for both shippers and recipients
- Adaptability: Systems that integrate with existing technology stacks and support configurable workflows
The holiday season tests every part of the fulfillment operation. Building flexibility now—through technology partnerships, carrier diversification, and proactive planning—creates resilience that pays dividends not just in December, but throughout the year.
Author & Authority
By Giovanna Freitas
Marketing specialist at Koorier
About Koorier
Koorier is a Canadian logistics technology company specializing in regional last-mile delivery networks and real-time delivery visibility for retailers and enterprises.
FAQs about Canadian holiday retail trends
How far in advance should retailers increase 3PL capacity for the holidays?
Capacity discussions typically begin three to four months before peak season, with contracts and staffing finalized well before November to ensure adequate resources are available.
What percentage of Canadian holiday orders are delivered versus picked up in store?
While exact figures vary by retailer and region, home delivery remains the dominant fulfillment method, though BOPIS continues growing as consumers seek convenience and certainty.
How do Canadian holiday delivery expectations differ from those in the United States?
Canadian consumers generally have slightly longer delivery time expectations due to geography and population distribution, but still demand reliability, clear communication, and accurate tracking.
What are the most common causes of holiday delivery failures in Canada?
Weather disruptions, incorrect or incomplete addresses, recipient unavailability, and carrier capacity overload represent the primary factors contributing to failed delivery attempts.
How can small Canadian retailers compete with major carriers on delivery speed?
Partnering with regional 3PLs, offering BOPIS options, and providing superior communication throughout the delivery journey can offset speed disadvantages and build customer loyalty.
-Picsart-AiImageEnhancer.png)
